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02 November 2011

Managing Uganda's Oil Discovery (19th Joseph Mubiru Memorial Lecture)

“Those with phones from the generation that can’t be silenced should switch them off (completely)!” the MC started with an amusing request to the eager guests. From crying babies to grey haired seniors, the Victoria Ballroom at Speke Resort Munyonyo was incredibly filled on Friday 28th October 2011 by all generations of Ugandans plus some white guests. Many of the previous lectures were also given by whites as evidenced by the video that greeted us as we walked in. Seats were added outside in the balcony area but still spilled over. Rain fell close to the end of the lecture but it didn’t matter. What mattered most was the topic of discussion during Bank of Uganda’s 19th Joseph Mubiru Memorial Lecture. Started in 1988, the annual lecture honours Joseph Mary Mubiru, the First Governor of BOU (1966 to 1971).



(Current Governor) Professor Emmanuel Tumusiime - Mutebile was the first speaker. He was glad to give his welcome address after three milestones in the bank’s history namely: the Introduction of new banknotes in 2010; the Triumph of the new 50,000 note - voted as the Best Design in the World; and his own Triumph - named the Best Central Bank Governor in Africa 2011. “Bugalo!” (Hands Clap), he ordered and the crowd laughed. He’s the one who introduced the Finance Minister.

Maria Kiwanuka (famous for starting Radio One and Two - Akaboozi) was gracefully comprehensive in moderating the discussions. She impressively noted and reiterated the good points.

The Main Lecture though was presented by Professor Paul Collier, Professor of Economics and Director at the Centre for the Study of African Economies, Oxford University. Below are some of the ideas he shared: Oil belongs to the entire nation and not only Mining Companies nor the Locals from whose area it is mined though they must benefit or they will riot. “Money corrupts but Oil money corrupts absolutely.” We need to avoid the curse that plagued Sierra Leone because of its diamonds. We need Peace like Botswana that had a similar public lecture after discovering diamonds. Despite the fast tracking of the East African Federation, Uganda’s oil should not be claimed by the other four members of the community just like England’s oil is England’s oil, not Scotland’s. Germany used to be the Worst Performing Economy in Europe until the Germans said, “Never Again!” and they turned the tables. Now they are the Best. Uganda can do that. About 30 developing nations once asked Norway for advice on how to develop like her and they were told to invest capital outside their countries. Norway already had enough capital at home and so for every worker in the country, more was added outside. Uganda cannot use the same strategy because “Uganda is very poor” in capital stocks at home. So oil revenue must be invested within Uganda. There should be Rules and Instructions, Transparency and Accountability. Instead of secretive deals, there should be Auction where the Best Bidder gets to explore Uganda’s Oil. A good leader creates systems that have no use for leadership.

Godber Tumushabe, who critiqued Collier’s paper compelled the audience to himself by speaking without fear that Politicians shouldn’t run the oil economy but leave it to entrepreneurs and trained experts. He remarked that the paper was shy in tackling that aspect. He believed he was suitable for this task because he had read Collier’s books. “I don’t work in government” was the reason he gave for speaking his mind. By the way, he also felt Universal Primary Education (UPE) doesn’t add much to pupils and New Districts should become Centres of Production, not just for Political Votes. “We have boarded a train and it will take us to either Botswana, Sierra Leone or Monrovia…” Despite cries from the public for him to be added more time, Godber agreed to use his remaining five minutes to deliver his arguments. He confessed that Africa never develops because we don’t responsibly use the Time and Resources we are given.

During the audience responses, a miner who descends from a Kisoro family with over 30 years of mining experience blamed Greed for the ruin in Uganda’s Mining Industry. “What happened to copper and other minerals?” he passionately inquired. Check greed and we won’t have an oil curse! Another respondent mentioned human resource as greater than oil and shouldn’t be ignored. Ken Lukyamuzi wowed the attendees with his humourous language and fearless criticism like in ages past. This time he respected the occasion and didn’t repeat his trademark phrase – “What are you talking about? – but threw in a legal term “estopy” that amused many. MP Lokeris and another from Vurra, Arua also spoke, just to mention a few.

The Finance Minister blamed parents for killing children’s dreams. Why can’t someone study history? Why force them to do biology simply because they pass Biology yet their interest is elsewhere? It’s the carpenters and entrepreneurs who will push the economy forward. Maria proclaimed that she got access to some interesting data in her new Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) office that revealed that for five years before 2009, Uganda was listed among the Top 10 Fastest Developing Countries in the World. What do you think will happen when Uganda’s oil is mined, taxed, the money is saved and invested?

[DISCLAIMER: Everything is paraphrased from memory so some ideas may not be exactly what was said but that’s how I grasped them.]